coolmelbourne.org

Professor Garnaut has described Climate Change as a ‘diabolical’ policy problem.

It may well be but the introduction of an emissions trading system will be a gentle, rather than a shock, transmission from a carbon economy to a renewable one. Self-interested industry groups (Big Polluters) have been quick off the mark to claim pending doom in the form of blackouts across Victoria. Media were keen to point to huge political risks for Mr Rudd.

The reality is that there will be minimum impact.

Only Big Polluters will be required to buy permits: aluminium smelters, oil refineries, coal miners, power stations, cement makers and steel makers. This will only cover one thousand companies.

The carbon price is expected to be around $20 per ton when introduced in 2010. This will mean a price rise of $10.20 per month in energy bills and a rise of .05 cents per litre of fuel. These rises will not knock us all over,  they will be absorbed slowly over time and steadily rise over the next decade. Some are saying that everything will go up, and it may, but it will happen slowly and not by very much.

It was always going to get political and it has. Emissions trading and the war of words have begun. We have Big Polluters appealing to our greed, asking if we really want to spend any money to fix our environment and suggesting that we should sit around and wait for someone to act first while we look after ourselves.

Meanwhile Mr Rudd is appealing to our fear and urging us to accept some mild price rises that will increase over time and compensate those who are least able to deal with the rises. Failure to do this will see us loose the Great Barrier Reef and Kakadu. So we are now fearful and greedy. Where to next?

If we act now there are advantages. The reality is that around 25 countries in Europe, New Zealand, Japan and California are miles ahead of us already so will not be ‘going it alone’. President Obama will support action to save our environment – this will have a huge impact internationally.

Starting earlier will give us a competitive advantage not the often claimed economic damage. Peter Costello tried unsuccessfully to get a trading system up for years but was headed of by the former PM, Mr Howard – costing the country ten years.

The Chinese speaking Mr Rudd will look to develop a close relationship with China to try and influence their decision making in this area. He will try to connect the US and China on this massive issue of emissions trading in the developing world.

If we get going early we will be able to contribute to any discussion on how others can implement their own trading system based around our own experience. Big polluters want to wait until everyone else has commenced trading and proven to us, the world’s worst polluters per head of population, that they can do it before we act. Politics can throw up some strange stuff.