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Achieving the overall picture of low prices does require government action. The model forecasts that by 2050 natural gas and petrol will cost 160 per cent and 32 per cent more respectively. To avoid large price hikes in home heating and road transport while still hitting the 80 per cent target, the Cambridge researchers had to build two major policies into their analysis. They assumed that future governments will provide grants and other incentives to help switch all domestic heating and cooking to electricity, and invest in the infrastructure needed for electric cars to almost completely replace petroleum-fuelled vehicles.

Both policies have been discussed in recent UK government strategy documents, though the detail of how they would be implemented is still pending. Firm policies must follow if ambitious emissions cuts are going to be made, says Chris Thoung of Cambridge Econometrics.

So is tackling climate change going to be easier than expected, in terms of consumer costs? While the Cambridge Econometrics model is widely respected and regularly used by the UK government's climate change advisers, any attempt to forecast four decades ahead can be derailed by unforeseen events. That leads some economists to question the model's results.

For example, companies could relocate to countries with less stringent carbon regulations, points out Richard Tol of the Economic and Social Research Institute in Dublin, Ireland. Incomes in the UK would fall, making goods relatively more expensive. Tol also questions whether it is reasonable to use historical prices as a basis for projecting beyond 2020.

Mike Hulme, a climate policy expert at the University of East Anglia in Norwich, UK, says that social effects are also unpredictable. A repeat of the 2000 fuel price protests, when action by truckers forced the UK government to cut road fuel taxes, could scupper plans to persuade consumers to switch to electric vehicles. Conversely, social effects could make cuts easier - for example, if the high emissions associated with flying stigmatise air travel among some groups, adds Hulme.

Despite this, the Cambridge Econometrics results, together with other recent studies, do provide a useful guide for governments, says Michael Grubb of the University of Cambridge. They suggest that the overall challenge is surmountable, even if many of the details will only become clear in years to come. "No one is asking policy-makers to have everything in place for the next 40 years," says Grubb. "But these results should reinforce the sense that this is a manageable problem."


Click here to read this article in New Scientist.